By John Mauldin
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Extra info for Bull's Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market
You must ignore the current year earnings. To get a true picture, he maintains, you must look at a ﬁve-year average of reported earnings. 4. 6 because markets are more liquid, there won’t be any economic disasters, and investors are smarter than they have been in the past. The correct P/E ratio that smarter investors will adopt in the future is somewhere in the low 20s. Then he talks about the new S&P core earnings standard, which will give investors conﬁdence. 75 after deducting for options expenses, pension costs, and other real-world costs, not the reported $45 that companies would have investors believe.
Unfortunately, there is no one indicator that can provide a trustworthy clue. To be statistically signiﬁcant, there should be a large number of “data points” with a given indicator that we use to verify its reliability. A poll that interviews only 10 people has little meaning, while one that has a thousand random interviews is far more reliable. Since there were only seven full bull and bear cycles in the past 200 years, we simply do not have enough data to be absolutely sure of any one indicator.
Even in secular bear markets, the stock markets rise in 50 percent of the years. All this paper tells us is that sometime over the next 15 to 20 years, there is going to be a fundamental shift to the downside in the average P/E ratio. This means that either the market Sideways to Down for 20 Years? moves sideways for a very long time until the P/E ratios come into line or that the market drops, perhaps signiﬁcantly, at some point. In other parts of this book I suggest it is likely that markets will move down in concert with future recessions during secular bears.