By J.-R. Frisch (auth.), J.-R. Frisch (eds.)
In 1977, on the Xth international power convention in Istanbul, the Conservation fee offered an preliminary international research of destiny tendencies in strength provide and insist as much as 2020. This pioneering paintings used to be the beginning of huge scale international power surveys. on the Munich convention of 1980, the fee made extra thorough analyses by way of concentrating fairly at the particular behaviour of 3rd global countries. this day, in New Delhi, based on the culture tested through its earlier surveys, the fee is constructing a brand new international research, the originality of which lies within the technique followed in its creation. Rejecting centralised forecasting types that have nearly solely ruled the minds of researchers, the fee prompt a decen tralised approach to technique which used to be different either in its uncomplicated ideas and in its implementation. primarily, the population of the areas have been to receive the potential for expressing their very own perspectives on their strength destiny, instead of enforcing on them an exterior version and for that reason exterior results.
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Extra info for Energy 2000–2020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses
Under Scenario (II), R9's energy exports will be limited to 30-35 MTOE by 2020 (2% of world exports). The high growth of R9's energy exports under Scenario (I) will be very well balanced between the different fossil fuels by 2020: 15% of world coal exports (the world's number three), 11 % for oil (number three), and 28% for gas (number two). Questions • Will R9's economic development not produce some positive surprises? 5 by 2020? Will it be able to do even better? • Should and could R9's non-commercial energy consumption be further extended?
Hydropower supplies will represent 40-55 MTOE by 2020, that is, volumes comparable to those of new energies (and gas) by that time. This expansion of commercial sources will not be sufficient to contain the growth of animal and vegetable waste demand from 50 to 110 MTOE by 2020, when R7 is the world's number one in this field. The simultaneous growth of firewood supply, from 70 MTOE in 1978 to 110 MTOE by 2020, is a matter of concern. In fact, South Asia will be the world's second firewood consumer.
This is in accordance with the region's objective of strict self reliance in the field of energy. As from 2000, R4 will be the world's first gas producer (nearly 40% of world supply). It will be number two for nuclear power by 2020 (27% of world supply), but it will be only number two for coal (35-38%), as well as number three (I) or four (II) for oil, before 2000. Interregional energy trade (i) (ii) (iii) In view of the principle of self-sufficiency, as well as the importance of intraregional trade, only limited quantities of energy are available for Eastern Europe's interregional energy trade: 100 MTOE for exports (7% of world exports), and 35 MTOE for imports (2% of world imports).