By Paul Collier, Catherine Pattillo
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Extra resources for Investment and Risk in Africa
Further, by lowering the costs of coordination among businesses the government thereby changes the nature of business lobbying from one in which individual firms seek advantages at the expense of other firms to one in which all firms seek to defend themselves against the government. The case for the assistance of lobbies by the government is analogous to why firms may find it advantageous to have unions: by creating a power against themselves they increase the credibility of their promises. In this volume the domestic penalty-inflicting agency of restraint which is considered is an Investment Authority, implementing an Investment Code.
Euromoney Assessment based on three main indicators: Analytical indicators (40%): Political risk (15%) Economic risk (10%) Economic indicators (15%); (debt service/export, external debt/GNP, balance of Payments/GNP) Credit indicators (20%): Payment record (15%) Rescheduling (5%). Market indicators (40%): Access to bond markets (15%) Selldown on short-term paper (10%) Access to discount available on forfeiting (15%). Economist Intelligence Unit Medium-term lending risk (45%): Total external debt/GDP, total debt serving ratio, interest payment ratio, current account/GDP, savings/investment ratio, arrears on international bank loans, recourse to IMF credit, and the degree of reliance on a single export.
However, it has a poor reputation either because of its own past history or because private agents infer its behaviour from that of neighbouring governments which, let us imagine, have already reversed reform attempts. Because of this poor reputation there will be little investment response to policy reform. In tum, because of the limited investment response, the gains from reform will be modest. Let us suppose that the gains will be too small for the government to survive the political costs of policy change.